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The path to the Draft

06/19/2019, 11:30am CDT
By Kevin Kurtt

A look at the past 20 NHL Drafts shows that no one route is typical of an NHL draftee from Minnesota

On June 21 in Vancouver, former Minnetonka High School forward Bobby Brink is projected to hear his name called in the first round of the NHL Draft. The 2018-19 USHL Forward of the Year will make it 51 straight years that a Minnesota native has been selected by an NHL franchise at the draft.

Brink’s path to the NHL Draft has been a relatively common one in recent years: Star for your local high school team before leaving home early to move up the development ladder and face stiffer competition in the USHL or with the U.S. National Team Development Program. That’s the route that last year’s top three picks from Minnesota – K’Andre Miller, Scott Perunovich and Blake McLaughlin – all took to the draft.

Of course, Brink will likely just be the first of what promises to be a class of 15 or so Minnesotans who will hear their name called this month in British Columbia. And their paths will be as unique as their playing styles. Some, like Cedar Rapids defenseman Will Francis, will have taken a similar route as Brink by leaving high school hockey early to head to the USHL. Others, like Chaska High School defenseman Mike Koster, stayed in high school through their senior season. Some, like Drew Helleson, headed to Plymouth, Mich., for the U.S. National Team Development Program (USNTDP). Still others, like Jackson LaCombe, honed their games at prep hockey powerhouse Shattuck-St. Mary’s.

One thing is certain: No one path is typical of an NHL draftee from Minnesota. Whether it’s leaving high school early or staying through graduation, playing in the USHL or NAHL in the U.S., or major junior hockey in Canada, or skipping junior hockey altogether, the routes to the NHL Draft vary significantly.

In the last 20 NHL Drafts (1999-2018), 264 Minnesota natives have been selected by NHL franchises. During that period, certain trends have emerged that give a picture of the various routes Minnesotans are taking to the draft. Following is an attempt to illustrate the changing trends of players selected in the last five, 10 and 20 NHL Drafts.

 

Feeder leagues
The top-producing league for Minnesotans in the NHL Draft from 1999-2018 has been the Minnesota State High School League (MSHSL) with 40% of all draftees. The last 10 drafts have seen 47% of all Minnesotans selected coming from the MSHSL. That number has dipped to 33% in the last five drafts with the USHL (28) and the USNTDP (18) claiming a larger share of players. Below is a look at the top feeder leagues for Minnesotans to the NHL Draft since 1999.

Overall (1999-2018)
1. MSHSL    40%
2. USHL        23%
3. NCAA        16%
4. USNTDP    11%

1999-2008
1. MSHSL    33%
1. NCAA        27%
3. USHL        23%
4. USNTDP    7%

2009-18
1. MSHSL    47%
2. USHL        24%
3. USNTDP    14%
4. NCAA        5%

Last 5
1. MSHSL    37%
2. USHL        28%
3. USNTDP    18%
4. NCAA        4%

 

Public vs. private vs. Shattuck
The state of Minnesota is blessed with a plethora of options for where to play hockey during a player’s high school years. Public high school programs draw the majority of players, but Minnesota boasts numerous elite private school teams that draw in players from throughout the state. Shattuck-St. Mary’s, a prep school in Faribault, attracts top players from not just Minnesota, but around the world. 

In the last 20 drafts, about 67% of Minnesota natives played hockey at a public high school vs. 23% at a private school. Shattuck accounted for eight percent of draftees from Minnesota. The remaining two percent skipped the high school route in favor of Tier 1/AAA hockey.

The 2019 NHL Draft will likely see a Minnesota public school product lead the way in Brink, followed by Shattuck representatives Helleson, LaCombe and Grant Silianoff. It could be several rounds this year before a private school player – like Holy Family’s Garrett Pinoniemi – gets drafted.

By total numbers, Shattuck leads the way with 23 draftees from Minnesota in the last 20 drafts, followed by Edina with 18, Hill-Murray with 12, Eden Prairie with 10, Minnetonka with nine, and Benilde-St. Margaret’s and Grand Rapids with eight.

 

Stay or go?
The debate on whether staying in high school hockey through graduation is the best for a player’s development and eventual draft standing has been a hot topic for years, and will likely continue. In the last 20 NHL Drafts, 47% of Minnesotans left their high school programs (either before or after getting drafted). 

Somewhat surprisingly, despite the increase in early departures in recent years, the trend of eventual draftees leaving high school early has stayed relatively the same in the past two decades. From 1999-2008, 47% of Minnesotan draftees left high school early. The following 10 years saw that number fall to 46%. In the last five NHL Drafts, the percentage of early departure draftees stands at 52 percent.

Among the top 15 Minnesota natives projected to be picked in the 2019 NHL Draft (not including Shattuck products), only three left high school hockey prior to graduation – Brink, Francis (Centennial) and Trevor Janicke (Maple Grove).

 

Junior hockey
When players leave high school hockey, either early or through graduation, the majority end up playing at least part of one season of junior hockey – mostly in the USHL, but also in the WHL, NAHL and BCHL. In the last 20 NHL Drafts, 72% of Minnesota natives played junior hockey prior to getting drafted. That number has seen a significant uptick in the last five drafts with 95% of draftees playing at least a portion of a season in junior hockey.

Playing in the juniors before and/or after high school has become increasingly popular for Minnesota natives. While just 14% of eventual draftees took that path from 1999-2008, the last five drafts have seen 23% of draftees sandwich their high school seasons with junior league play.

Among the top 15 Minnesota natives projected to be picked in the 2019 NHL Draft, only three – Pinoniemi, Ben Brinkman and Nate Warner – have not played junior hockey.

 

College hockey
For the vast majority of Minnesotans in the NHL Draft, college hockey is the destination – either before or after getting drafted. Ninety-four percent of Minnesota natives in the last 20 drafts played at least one season of college hockey. 

Leading the way with 79 draftees is the University of Minnesota, followed by North Dakota with 27, Minnesota Duluth with 24, St. Cloud State and Wisconsin with 18, Omaha with 11 and Minnesota State with 10.

All 22 Minnesota natives listed in NHL Central Scouting’s Final Rankings for the 2019 NHL Draft have committed to an NCAA Division I college hockey program for this fall or beyond.

 

Positions
Of all NHL draftees from Minnesota since 1999, 51% have been forwards, followed by defensemen at 43% and goaltenders at 6%. In the 10 most recent drafts, however,it appears the State of Hockey is producing more elite forwards with 63% of Minnesotans selected since 2009 calling an attacking position home. Defenseman draftees dropped to 30%, while goalies rose to 7% during that span.

 

NHL teams
Some NHL teams seem to be more likely to draft Minnesota natives than others. In fact, nine teams have picked 11 or more Minnesotans in the last 20 drafts. Perhaps not surprisingly, the majority of those teams call the Midwest home. The Minnesota Wild and Nashville Predators lead with 14 draftees each, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues with 13 each.

 

The following sections take a look at the first decade of our study (1999-2008).

Reaching pro hockey
While hearing their name called at the NHL Draft is a dream-come-true for many Minnesota natives, a career in the NHL is far from a sure thing. In fact, of the 135 Minnesotans selected in the draft from 1999-2008, 44 percent eventually played at least one game in the NHL. Although reaching the NHL is far from guaranteed for draftees from Minnesota, playing pro hockey at any level is a good bet. 

In fact, 93 percent of Minnesotan draftees from 1999-2008 played in the NHL, AHL, ECHL or Europe. Only eight players failed to advance out of college hockey, while only two didn’t make it out of juniors – Jamie Hoffmann (who instead pursued a pro baseball career) and Adam Johnson (a Greenway HS defenseman who played in the WHL after his prep career).

 

Years to reach the NHL
Getting drafted is just the first step in a player’s goal of reaching the pinnacle of the game in the NHL. Further development in the junior, college or minor pro ranks for multiple seasons is almost always required of draftees from Minnesota. In fact, of the 135 Minnesotans selected in the draft from 1999-2008, only one player – David Tanabe – played in the NHL in the same year he was drafted. At the other end of the spectrum is Travis Morin who played his first NHL game nine years after getting drafted. On average, it takes players from Minnesota 3-4 years after getting drafted to get the call up to the NHL.

Observers may note that Bobby Brink’s decision to leave high school early in favor of the USHL served him well in improving his draft position. Of course, in 2007, Casey Mittelstadt was selected eighth overall, just a few months after completing his senior season at Eden Prairie High School. Those that hail Brink’s decision and those that questioned Mittelstadt’s path to the NHL Draft presuppose that there is one correct route to getting drafted when the numbers from the past 20 years show anything but a typical path to the draft.

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Tag(s): State Of Hockey  News  Pro  Kevin Kurtt